$104 million in cap space is a lot, until it isn’t.
It’s enough to add a skilled player here and there, fill some of the support roles, and fix areas that were perhaps glaringly obvious in the Stanley Cup final against the Florida Panthers.
Cough, cough, the Edmonton Oilers.
So yeah, $104 million is a lot of money.
Now subtract $14 million to pay Leon Draisaitl.
Subtract another $15.5 million for Connor McDavid, presumably.
Subtract another $9.25 million to pay Darnell Nurse.
And, finally, subtract another $10.5 million for Evan Bouchard.
That’s 47 per cent of the Oilers’ cap space in 2026-27 to pay four players. Sound familiar? Almost Core Four-ish? Because that’s what it looks like.
It is slightly less than Toronto’s 53 per cent to pay Austin Matthews ($13.25 million), Mitch Marner ($10.903 million), John Tavares ($11 million), and William Nylander ($11.5 million).
Small wins, I suppose.
The truth is, we’ve seen the consequences of allocating so much cap space to so few players over the past few years, but it is likely to hit the Oilers in slightly worse ways than the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Both clubs have a very limited prospect pool.
Both teams have limited draft capital, having traded away numerous picks.
And both organizations have come up short despite these efforts to advance further.
However, the Leafs do have good goaltending—a solid starter in Anthony Stolarz, and an incoming talent in Dustin Woll.
The Oilers, on the other hand, are still struggling for a consistent number one, and have found that replacing their goalie coach is the solution.
Of course, the Oilers’ star players do perform in the playoffs and carry the burden of unmet expectations as opposed to saying, “I would’ve liked more energy” from the bench.
Again, small wins.
The parallels go deeper than that, though.
On either team, you’ll find:
A world-class forward, a captain in the NHL, and one of the most productive players in the league—could be Matthews or McDavid.
A strong setup man capable of putting up some of the most impressive numbers in a league where it’s never been more difficult to do so—Marner and Drasaitl have never looked more similar.
Strong play-makers, valued for their two-way game and occasional physicality—sounds like Tavares and Nurse.
Players with a hard shot, offensive capabilities and questionable defensive zone coverage at times—though they do not play the same position, the similarities between Nylander and Bouchard have never been clearer.
What characterizes these two groups beyond matched skill sets, though, will always be the inordinate amount of cap space they take or took up.
Do most of these players deserve to make that much? Probably.
Should they make that much on the same team? No.
Will it ever be worth it? Also no.
Their team’s inability to put together a well-rounded lineup will never justify the cost of paying select talent, especially when compared to the alternative.
Take the Panthers, for example. To run it back and go for three consecutive Stanley Cups, numerous key players who could have earned substantially more elsewhere took pay cuts to stay in Florida.
Sam Bennet, a Conn Smythe winner, resigned for $8 million a year.
Brad Marchand resigned for a $5.25 million AAV, albeit for a longer term than expected (six years).
Aaron Ekblad is locked in at $6.1 million a year.
Yes, no state is a considerable factor, but there is no denying the difference in cap-friendly vs. cap-hugging contracts between the Oilers and Panthers.
There is countless factors that contributed to each result, but all that matters is the outcome.
The only question that remains is how long it will take the Oilers to realize the same mistakes that the Leafs have already made, and the Panthers have avoided.
